The Memsie is where spring reputations are made and autumn form goes to die. First-up specialists, weight-for-age pretenders and genuine Cox Plate contenders all collide, and the market has to price all three at once.
The overriding rule of Memsie day: respect fresh horses from stables that win first-up, and be suspicious of horses whose best form is buried three runs deep into a preparation.
The shape of the race
Early speed looks genuine this year, which changes everything for the closers. In recent renewals with honest tempo, horses settling worse than midfield have filled the placings; in falsely-run editions, on-pace horses have been untouchable.
The map suggests a truly-run race, which brings the swoopers right into calculations — provided the track isn't playing leader-biased, and Caulfield in late winter often is.
