Track bias is the most misused term in racing, but it's real, measurable, and worth money when you're ahead of the market on it. This report covers the winter Flemington pattern with the rail movements and sectional data laid out.
The headline: with the rail out beyond six metres, on-pace runners in the straight-course races have performed above expectation, while the 2000-metre-plus races have consistently favoured horses ridden quietly and angled to the outside.
Reading the sectionals
Raw finishing positions lie. The tell is in closing sectionals relative to race averages: when horses running the fastest final 400 metres consistently fail to make ground, position on the track is beating quality of horse — the definition of bias.
Punters who adjust for this within a race meeting, not after it, are the ones who profit. By the time the bias is on social media, it's in the prices.